The population of the European Union is expected to reach a historic high in 2029 before declining to levels last seen in the mid-1970s by the end of the century.
With a population of 450.6 million, the European Union is approaching its highest population level ever recorded before entering a gradual long-term decline, marking a turning point that highlights the significant challenges posed by persistently low birth rates.
According to a report by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), the EU’s population is projected to increase slightly to 453.3 million in 2029 before beginning a slow but steady decline.
The population is expected to fall to 445 million by 2050 and to 398.8 million by 2100, returning to levels comparable to those of the mid-1970s.
At the same time, Europeans are living longer than ever before.
Life expectancy reached 81.5 years in 2024, thanks to advances in healthcare and improved living conditions.
By 2050, nearly one in three people living in the EU will be aged 65 or older, compared with one in five today.
By 2100, life expectancy could exceed 90 years for women and 86 years for men.
These demographic developments are expected to have significant consequences, including labour shortages, increased fiscal pressure, greater strain on healthcare, education, and training systems, as well as growing challenges to territorial cohesion, the European Union acknowledges.
At the same time, these trends are creating new market opportunities through the so-called «silver economy," with products and services designed to meet the needs of older adults.
«We are living longer and healthier lives than ever before—one of our greatest achievements. However, demographic change is transforming our societies, our economies, and our labour markets, and we must act now to ensure this transition becomes an opportunity rather than a challenge," said European Commissioner Dubravka Šuica, who is responsible for democracy and demography.
The EU stresses that improving productivity and reducing unemployment will be essential to offset the effects of a shrinking working-age population.
Today, around 20% of people of working age remain outside the labour market. The employment gap between women and men remains at 10 percentage points, while approximately eight million young people are neither employed, nor in education, nor participating in vocational education or training.
The report also notes that migration is playing an increasingly important role in population growth by partially offsetting the negative effects of population ageing and the shrinking workforce. However, it is not expected to significantly alter the EU’s overall demographic trajectory.
